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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's talk show from Dallas last night.  It's here.

NOVEMBER 2,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:51 P.M. ET: 

THE RUSSIAN AIRLINER – From CBS News:   CBS News national security correspondent David Martin reports a U.S. infrared satellite detected a heat flash over the Sinai at the time the Russian plane went down. The data is still being analyzed in an effort to determine what caused the flash. One possibility is a bomb, but an explosion in a fuel tank or engine as the result of a mechanical failure is also possible.  Some aviation experts raised the possibility that a bomb on board the Metrojet Airbus A321-200 brought it down, while others cited an incident in 2001 when the aircraft grazed the runway with its tail while landing.  James Clapper, the U.S. director of national intelligence, said that while there is no direct evidence of any terrorist involvement yet, it couldn't be excluded that the plane was brought down by Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) extremists in the Sinai Peninsula.  There is much intrigue surrounding this sad incident, but the two black boxes have been recovered, and should tell much of the story.

JEB FADING – From The Hill:   Bobby Jindal, the Louisiana governor who has been relegated to the undercard debate throughout the GOP presidential race, has edged out former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in a new poll of Iowa.  Jindal scored 6 percent support in the survey from Public Policy Polling (PPP), one percentage point ahead of Bush, though within the poll’s 3.9 percent margin of error.  Still, the uptick for Jindal is broadly indicative of just how far Bush has fallen — something that has been exacerbated by his poor showing in last week’s Republican debate.  Bush’s team has repeatedly brushed aside concerns about the candidate’s poll numbers, noting that there are still three months to go until the Iowa caucuses.   There's no joy in this.  Jeb Bush was a fine, respected governor.  But his campaign has been lackluster, and he sometimes seems out of touch and out of practice.  I think he's deserved better from the GOP electorate, and the conservative press.  But this is a year filled with acrimony and revenge.  Not his turf.

BE FOREWARNED – Let's not forget the people who gave us 9/11.  They're still around, and they have ambitions.  From vocativ.com:   In a new audio message released late Sunday night, Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri urged 9/11-style attacks against the U.S. and praised a recent spate of stabbing attacks by Palestinians against Israelis.  The 16-minute message, discovered by Vocativ’s deep web technology as the recording was initially distributed on social media platforms, features al-Zawahiri calling for attacks against “the West,” especially against the U.S. for its support of Israel. “Those who support Israel should pay in their blood and economy the price for supporting the crimes of Israel against Islam and Muslims,” al-Zawahiri says on the recording, titled “We Shall Unite To Liberate Jerusalem.”  He also called on fighters to follow in the path of those who carried out the September 11, 2001 attacks, “and the attacks in Madrid, Bali, London and Paris.”  It is amazing that, after seven years as president, Obama has made things much worse in the world, and cannot claim a single foreign-policy victory that has actually helped the United States.

November 2, 2015       Permalink

THE END OF CIVILIZATION? – AT 11:04 A.M. ET:  A member of the Yale University staff wrote something in defense of free speech, and you'd think from some of the reaction that civilization had come to an end.  From the Yale Daily News: 

A Friday email sent by Silliman College Associate Master Erika Christakis decrying the censure of costumes deemed culturally appropriating incited campus controversy over Halloween weekend.

Christakis’ message, sent just after midnight Friday, came in response to an email the Intercultural Affairs Council — a group of administrators from the cultural centers, Chaplain’s Office and other campus organizations — sent to the undergraduate student body on Wednesday. The council’s email asked students to be thoughtful about the cultural implications of their Halloween costumes, citing blackface and turbans as examples of details that could offend or belittle others. In Christakis’ email, she defended students’ rights to wear potentially offensive costumes as an expression of free speech, arguing that the ability to tolerate affront is one of the hallmarks of a free and open society. Her email compared adults selecting costumes to children playing dress up, and she asserted that imagination should be encouraged and not constrained.

“Is there no room anymore for a child or young person to be a little bit obnoxious … a little bit inappropriate or provocative or, yes, offensive?” Christakis, who assumed the position of associate master of Silliman this fall, wrote. “American universities were once a safe space not only for maturation but also for a certain regressive, or even transgressive, experience; increasingly, it seems, they have become places of censure and prohibition.”

In response, more than 740 undergraduates, graduate students, alumni, faculty and even students from other universities have signed on to an open letter telling Christakis that her “offensive” email invalidates the voices of minority students on campus. The letter, posted Friday night, states that Christakis misrepresented the Intercultural Affairs Committee’s call for sensitivity as “censure.” It also states that in describing the call for sensitive costumes as coming “from above, not from yourselves,” Christakis implies that only administrators, and not students, have called for sensitivity.

Silliman student Ryan Wilson ’17, who wrote the letter with input from other students, argued that Christakis failed to distinguish between dressing up as fictional characters and misrepresenting actual groups of people. Giving room for students to be obnoxious or offensive only invites ridicule and violence onto minorities at Yale, and it decreases the space in which marginalized students can feel safe, Wilson wrote.

COMMENT:  Read the whole story.  There's room for optimism.  Many comments at the end are supportive of Ms. Christakis, understanding that she was asking for common sense and true free speech. 

Free speech by its nature is offensive.  We don't need a First Amendment to protect popular speech.  I guarantee you that no person in human history has gone to prison for agreeing with his government.

There is an attempt by the politically correct to infantilize students.  It is intentional.  Infantilization is the first step on the road to controlling a population, making that population feel that it is in danger and in need.  I think there's a backlash building.  I hope so.

November 2, 2015       Permalink

WARNING – THE INTERNATIONAL LEFT ON THE MARCH – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:   There's a conference on climate change coming up in Paris.  The potential for damage to the United States is enormous, and leave it to the Vaudeville act of Obama and Kerry to seize the opportunity.  From WND: 

At the upcoming United Nations Climate Summit in Paris, participating nations have prepared a treaty that would create an “International Tribunal of Climate Justice” giving Third World countries the power to haul the U.S. into a global court with enforcement powers.

Congress would be bypassed – left out in the cold – by this climate deal, critics say.

Policies once left to sovereign nations could be turned over to a U.N. body if the U.S. and its allies approve the proposed deal in Paris during the summit scheduled for Nov. 30-Dec. 11.

According to the proposed draft text of the climate treaty, the tribunal would take up issues such as “climate justice,” “climate finance,” “technology transfers,” and “climate debt.”

Buried on page 19 of the 34-page document is the critical text – still heavily bracketed with text that hasn’t been completely resolved and agreed upon – reads:

[An International Tribunal of Climate Justice as][A] [compliance mechanism] is hereby established to address cases of non-compliance of the commitments of developed country Parties on mitigation, adaptation, [provision of] finance, technology development and transfer [and][,] capacity-building[,] and transparency of action and support, including through the development of an indicative list of consequences, taking into account the cause, type, degree and frequency of non-compliance.

The U.N. held a preparatory conference in September in Bonn, Germany, that drafted language to be approved at the upcoming Paris climate summit. At the Bonn meeting the U.N. brought together more than 2,000 participants from governments, observer organizations and the media.

But none of those media chose to report on the proposed new global tribunal.

The Paris Conference is mandated to adopt “a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all parties,” which is to come into force in 2020, according to IISD Reporting Services, which tracks the global sustainable development movement.

COMMENT:  Absolutely chilling.   Any agreement would give away our sovereignty, and that is the dream of the socialist left. 

And nobody seems to care.

Anything this momentous should, of course, be presented to the Senate as a treaty, requiring two thirds approval.  But Obama, using the corrupt precedent of the Iran nuclear deal, will probably argue that it's just an executive agreement.  And the potted plants in Congress will say, "Yes, sir."

November 2, 2015       Permalink

GOP CANDIDATES RAP OBAMA'S SYRIA POLICY – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:   Or, as Ronald Reagan might have said to Obama, "There you go again."  The president has a shiny new Syria policy, or half-policy, or patch job, and Republicans are properly pouncing.  From The Hill:

Republican presidential candidates panned President Obama’s plan to send 50 Special Operations forces into Syria on the Sunday shows this week.

Ben Carson said the Syria plan is a “move in the right direction,” but still neglects the role that Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing in the conflict.

“My much, much, much bigger plan involves Putin and Iran also,” Carson said on ABC’s “This Week.” “Those are the forces that are propping up the Assad regime, even though Putin came in there and said he was going to fight ISIS, he’s really fighting the anti-Assad forces.”

The retired neurosurgeon added that America should implement a no-fly zone to protect Syrian rebels opposed to the Assad regime.

Carly Fiorina described the president’s plan as “too little, too late” and blamed devolving stability in the region on the dearth of American leadership.

“I think this is a reflection of the reality that when America does not act, when we do not lead, as we have not in the last three years under this president, our options become very constrained, and the situation becomes more dangerous,” she said.

“I’m glad he did this, but we still do not have a strategy in Syria, we still do not have a strategy to deal with ISIS,” Fiorina added.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said the move will be interpreted as a sign of weakness by America’s enemies and said it has “no chance of success.”

“Sending 50 American Special Forces into Syria in the eyes of ISIL shows that Obama is not all-in, it is a sign of weakness to ISIL,” Graham said.

He also called Secretary of State John Kerry “a completely delusional man” for continuing to take the Russians and Iranians at their word.

“I see Russia and Iran mopping the floor with Obama and Kerry,” Graham said.

COMMENT:  American foreign policy under Obama has become a complete disgrace.  We lose everywhere.  The word "win" has been banished from our vocabulary.  It would take thousands of American troops, not 50, to make a difference.  And, given Putin's dramatic entry into Syria, with Russian forces, our troops might soon be facing Moscow's. 

This is a president who has boasted that he's ended two wars.  Yeah, right.  We're sittin' on top of the world.

November 2, 2015       Permalink

THE AIRLINER – AT 8:38 A.M. ET:  There has been a potentially major development into the probe of the crash of a Russian airliner in the Sinai Saturday, killing 224.  From AP:

A Russian passenger plane that crashed in the Sinai desert was downed by “an external impact,” a top Russian airline official said Monday, ruling out the possibility of technical fault of pilot error.

Alexander Smirnov, the deputy general director of Metrojet, said the cause of the crash “could only have been an external impact on the plane” in the air.

When pressed for an explanation about what could have caused this impact, Smirnov insisted that he was not at liberty to discuss details because the investigation into the crash, which left 224 people dead, was ongoing.

Smirnov also said the crew did not send a distress call and did not contact traffic controllers before the crash.

“The crew totally lost control and for that reason there was not one attempt to get in contact,” Smirnov said, adding that the plane was in “excellent technical condition.”

Smirnov said the Airbus A320-200 dropped 300 kph (186 mph) in speed and 1.5 kilometers (about 5,000 feet) in altitude one minute before it crashed into Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula.

The announcement came a day after Egyptian officials ruled out the possibility that the plane was downed by a missile, as jihadists affiliated with the Islamic State group claimed.

COMMENT:  Obviously, we cannot verify any of this, and one can argue that an airline executive would have a vested interest in steering attention away from possible mechanical defects or service issues involving his doomed aircraft.  At the same time, an airline executive would not want to call attention to the fact that his plane was flying through dangerous skies.

We know that the plane broke up in the air only minutes after taking off.  It is rare for a modern airliner to disintegrate.   Observers make the point that the plane was flying at about 30,000 feet when it disappeared from radar, far higher than the range of shoulder-launched missiles believed to be in the hands of terrorist groups.  No one has ruled out a bomb on board.  Or, a missile could have been fired from another aircraft.   

The black boxes have been recovered.  Assuming an honest investigation, and that is only an assumption, we should have more details soon.   But the statement by the Russian airline official brings to mind the nightmare scenario – airliners downed intentionally, posing a dire threat to the international airline system.

November 2,  2015     Permalink

NOVEMBER 1,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:58 P.M. ET: 

DON'T TELL THE PRESIDENT – From the Christian Science Monitor:  A new NASA study found that Antarctica has been adding more ice than it's been losing, challenging other research, including that of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that concludes that Earth’s southern continent is losing land ice overall.  In a paper published in the Journal of Glaciology on Friday, researchers from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, the University of Maryland in College Park, and the engineering firm Sigma Space Corporation offer a new analysis of satellite data that show a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001 in the Antarctic ice sheet.  That gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008.  Climate scientists caution that these findings don’t mean it’s time to start celebrating the end of global warming. More than anything, the paper shows how difficult it is to measure ice height in Antarctica and that better tools are needed.  Yeah, better tools are needed.  And maybe a little more modesty on the part of "climate scientists" as well.  We'd better get this right before we send trillions of dollars down the drain.

WHY AM I NOT SHOCKED? – From USA Today:   Even though they haven't been at fault, self-driving test cars are involved in crashes at five times the rate of conventional cars, a new study finds.  Even when the figures are adjusted to take into account that many accidents involving conventional cars go unreported, the study from the University of Michigan's Transportation Research Institute found that the rate is still twice as high.  Yet it notes that it is making the comparison from a tiny pool of autonomous test cars, about 50 of them in California, versus 269 million conventional cars as of 2013. The self-driving cars have logged about 1.2 million miles in total, while the conventionals cumulatively go trillions of miles a year. As a result, the total number of self-driving car accidents being used for comparison is the study is minuscule, 11. But that's five times the rate of the accident rate in conventional cars, and there's four times the injury rate, the study finds. The injuries, however, have all been minor.  At the same time, I haven't seen any evidence that the self-driving cars go off in a road rage.  I'd rather have a fender-bender with a computer than with a member of the human race.

LOSS – From The Tennessean:   Fred Thompson, a former U.S. senator from Tennessee, GOP presidential candidate, Watergate attorney and actor who starred on the television drama "Law and Order," died on Sunday in Nashville. He was 73.  Mr. Thompson died after a recurrence of lymphoma, according to a prepared statement issued by the Thompson family. Mr Thompson, who had recently purchased a house in Nashville to return to Tennessee, was first diagnosed with cancer in 2004.  "It is with a heavy heart and a deep sense of grief that we share the passing of our brother, husband, father, and grandfather who died peacefully in Nashville surrounded by his family," the Thompson family's statement reads.  He was a good guy, a good senator, solid actor, capable TV commercial pitchman, and so-so candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.  He was one of those candidates who "looked like a president," but he never seemed to have the fire in the belly.

November 1, 2015       Permalink

WARNING ON PRISONER RELEASES – AT 1:14 P.M. ET:  Many Americans aren't aware of Obama's plan to release thousands of prisoners serving time for "nonviolent" drug offenses.  The police commissioner of New York issues a warning.  From The Hill:

New York City Police Department (NYPD) Commissioner Bill Bratton says the U.S. needs to be very careful about who it is releasing from prison.

His call for prudence comes after President Obama announced he would release 6,000 inmates in the largest one-time release of federal prisoners ever. The release is scheduled to take place from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2.

“We have to be very concerned about who we’re letting out,” Bratton said in an interview with host John Catsimatidis on AM 970 New York on Sunday.

“One of the issues of concern is when people go to jail, often times they go to jail with negotiated charges, if you will, so that somebody that is in jail that seems like they’re non-violent, they may in fact have crimes of violence in their record,” Bratton said.

An excellent point, ignored by the media.

The commissioner also said the public needs to come to the realization that some criminals are beyond rehabilitation.

He pointed to the case of Randolph Holder, 33, an NYPD detective who was allegedly killed last month by a man who had been arrested 28 times prior.

“Judges need to – and district attorneys, and we the police, and the public – need to take into account that some people, I’m sorry, they’re criminals,” Bratton said.

“Some people are bad people, and we need to separate the bad people from the good people,” he added.

COMMENT:  Very well said, although it won't endear Bratton to the leftists running the New York City government.  There are truly bad people out there, and no amount of intellectual contemplation will change them.

I expect to see some of the people released by Obama turning up on the news pages fairly soon.  We await the excuses.

November 1, 2015       Permalink

OBAMACARE'S SAD STATE – AT 11:58 A.M. ET:  We can't say we weren't warned.  Obamacare was rigged in advance to provide the services first...and the premium increases later.  Makes people happy.  Wins elections for the Dems.  But things are getting serious now.  From The Hill: 

The Obama administration on Sunday begins what is expected to be the toughest enrollment period yet for ObamaCare.

The administration has sought to lower expectations, trimming back its overall enrollment projection while warning that the people who remain uninsured will be the hardest to reach.

Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) Sylvia Mathews Burwell said she and her team are putting affordability at the forefront of the three-month enrollment sprint in an attempt to ease concerns about rising premiums.

“A lot of people don’t actually understand” how ObamaCare works, Burwell told reporters Thursday. “They don’t even know about the tax credits or the financial assistance. Some don’t even know at all, some are confused by it.”

They must have done a great information job.

Still, Burwell has acknowledged, “this open enrollment is going to be tougher than last year.”

The administration's goal of having 10 million people enrolled by the end of next year, up from 9.1 million this year, is widely viewed as a low target that would represent a modest expansion of President Obama’s signature domestic program.

“It isn’t very much growth,” said Karen Pollitz, a former HHS official in the Obama administration who is now at the Kaiser Family Foundation.

While there is uncertainty about how the enrollment period will go, some fear that not enough healthy people will sign up to create a “risk pool” that balances the sick enrollees and prevents premiums from spiking.

“That would be a concern,” Pollitz said. “Sort of, how big of a risk pool do you need?”

COMMENT:  Yeah, that's kind of a concern.  That determines what the premium increases will be.  Obamacare depends on an enrolled pool of young, healthy participants, whose premiums balance out the needs of the sicker population.  That ain't happenin'.

Get out your checkbooks.  They messed it up.  When Obamacare began we were told there were 40-45 million people uninsured.  There are still 29 million uninsured.  In other words, only 16 million of the uninsured are now covered.  And many have lost plans and doctors that they liked.

This guy Obama – what a leader!

November 1, 2015       Permalink

THE PLANE CRASH – AT 11:41 A.M. ET:  The case of the Russian airliner that crashed in the Sinai desert with the loss of 224 souls gets curioser and curioser. 

The Russians now say that the fuselage of the plane disintegrated in the air, scattering debris over a very wide area.  The Russians also say that the air crew sent out distress signals before the plane broke up.

Wrong, say the Egyptians, on whose territory the plane crashed.  There is no record of any distress calls.  The plane simply disappeared from radar.  From CNN:

Russian media outlets said that the pilot reported technical problems and requested a landing at the nearest airport before the plane went missing, but Egyptian authorities disputed that claim.

Air traffic control recordings don't show any distress calls, Egyptian Civil Aviation Minister Hossam Kamel said at a news conference.

"There was nothing abnormal before the plane crash," he said. "It suddenly disappeared from the radar."

CNN aviation correspondent Richard Quest said it was "unusual" for an aircraft to go down after around 20 minutes in the sky.

"At this point, a plane is on autopilot. It's reaching its initial cruising altitude, and there is little that can or should go wrong," he wrote in an analysis.

COMMENT:  ISIS claims that it brought the plane down with a missile.  That claim has been widely discounted.  The shoulder-launched missiles used by ISIS only reach 14,000 feet, and the plane was at 30,000 feet when it disappeared from radar.  Anti-aircraft missiles that can reach 30,000 feet require an extensive ground installation, something ISIS doesn't have in the Sinai area.

However, that doesn't rule out the possibility of a bomb on board. 

We may never know the answer.  Neither Russia nor Egypt is a dependable source for crash information.  They will report what is good for their side.

November 1,  2015     Permalink